Wednesday, September 24, 2008

WaPo-lling

Washington Post has a poll out today that says BHO has a 9 point lead over Gramps nationally. Seems a bit too high to me but the internals are interesting (if also probably a bit too positive).

It appears that Gramps may gone 'a lie too far". Washington Monthly notes

[T]he poll asked respondents which candidate is "more honest and trustworthy." Obama enjoys a healthy, double-digit lead, 47% to 36%.


Just as importantly, this is a recent development. When voters were asked this same question about candidate honesty in mid-July, Obama and McCain were about tied (Obama had a three-point lead). The same poll asked the same question in August, and again, they were about tied (Obama led by just one point). Shortly after the Republican convention, McCain was perceived as more trustworthy by six points.

And now, that trend has completely reversed, and Obama leads by 11 points on honesty and trustworthiness.


I mention this in part because there's been a noticeable trend of late of political observers expressing their disappointment in the McCain campaign's relentless lying and shameless dishonesty, and I've wondered whether voters would pick up on any of this. If the poll results are any indication, they have.


On the economy:

Just 9 percent of those surveyed rated the economy as good or excellent, the first time that number has been in single digits since the days just before the 1992 election. Just 14 percent said the country is heading in the right direction, equaling the record low on that question in polls dating back to 1973.

More voters trust Obama to deal with the economy, and he currently has a big edge as the candidate who is more in tune with the economic problems Americans now face. He also has a double-digit advantage on handling the current problems on Wall Street, and as a result, there has been a rise in his overall support. The poll found that, among likely voters, Obama now leads McCain by 52 percent to 43 percent.

Two weeks ago, in the days immediately following the Republican National Convention, the race was essentially even, with McCain at 49 percent and Obama at 47 percent.

As a point of comparison, neither of the last two Democratic nominees -- John F. Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000 -- recorded support above 50 percent in a pre-election poll by the Post and ABC News.


Palin Fades
Sarah Palin's poll numbers are fading, with her unfavorable rating going up 10 points in two weeks. The percentage of independents with favorable views of Palin dropped from 60% to 48% over the same time frame, including a huge 18-point drop among independent women.

And as she fades, so does Republican enthusiasm
62% of Obama supporters are "very enthusiastic," while 34% of McCain's backers said the same. Immediately after the Republican convention, about half of McCain's supporters were "very enthusiastic." What's more, the Post noted, "Among Republicans, conservatives and white evangelical Protestants, strong enthusiasm for McCain's candidacy has dropped by double digits."

And Indies start leaning our way big time
independents now prefer Obama by a wide margin, 53% to 39%, and Obama's advantage among independents on the economy is now a whopping 21 points.

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