More Support For GT12's Debate Analysis

Nate Silver looks at what BHO accomplished on Friday:

Rasmussen reports that 40 percent of voters now have a very favorable view of Barack Obama, the highest that this number has been all year, and an improvement from 36 percent in their last release before the debate. And voters feel safer about Obama. In today's ABC News poll, which actually had McCain gaining back some ground overall, 55 percent of voters said they considered Obama a "safe" choice, as opposed to 50 percent for McCain. In mid-June, the last time that ABC had asked this question, McCain led in this category 57-50.

So Obama may not have persuaded that many voters on Friday night (I don't think his performance, frankly, was all that persuasive). But he may have reassured and locked in some of his soft supporters -- perhaps Clinton voters and working class Dems.What that means is that Obama's floor is higher (and therefore McCain's ceiling is lower).

What it also means is that negative attacks may be less effective for McCain, which are often targeted at soft supporters of the opposing candidate. The CW is that McCain ought to go starkly negative on Obama, but I'm not sure that he wouldn't stand a better chance by zigging when everyone expects him to zag, rebuilding his inherently strong brand, campaigning on the big-picture themes that dominated the GOP convention, and leaving it to the 527's to do his dirty work.
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