Obama has opened up his biggest lead over McCain in the NBC/WSJ poll, 52%-42%, which is up four points from his lead two weeks ago. ... 56% say they are either “optimistic or confident” or “satisfied and hopeful” that Obama would do a good job as president; only 44% say that of McCain. And now 55% believe that Obama shares their background and values, which isn’t far off from the 57% who believe the same about McCain. Obama never had to best McCain in these categories; he just had to meet a certain threshold with voters, which he has seemed to accomplish in our poll.
[McCain] trails Obama [among independent voters] by 12 points, 49%-37%. What's striking (and ironic) is that McCain's political brand has been forged by his stature with independents -- and it's what always made him the strongest Republican to run in this cycle. ... As NBC/WSJ co-pollster Peter Hart (D) puts it, “If you don’t win the middle in America, you don’t win the election.” If there is an upside to McCain's focus on the base, it's that it may prevent any electoral landslide.
[Palin's] numbers have plummeted in our poll. For the first time, she has a net-negative fav/unfav rating (38%-47%), the only principal to carry that distinction. What's more, 55% think she's unqualified to serve as president if the need arises, which is a troublesome number given McCain's age. (Have worries about McCain's age risen because of Palin? Seems to be the case). In fact, her qualifications to be president rank as voters’ top concern about a McCain presidency -- ahead of continuing Bush’s policies. (Who would have ever thought that Palin would be a bigger problem for McCain than Bush would?) And while inexperience turns out to be voters’ top concern about an Obama presidency, it’s probably not helpful to the McCain camp that inexperience is now a liability for its ticket, too. If these poll numbers weren’t bad enough for Palin, now comes a Politico report noting that the RNC spent more than $150,000 to clothe and accessorize her at high-end stores like Neiman Marcus and Saks Fifth Avenue -- a story that could further add to the perception that Palin isn’t a serious candidate
McClatchy show BHO winning on taxes and Family Values
On taxes, for example, likely voters now prefer Obama over McCain by a margin of 8 percentage points. This is despite a concerted effort by McCain and running mate Sarah Palin to cast Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal who'd raise taxes on ordinary folks such as Joe the Plumber, an Ohio man whom McCain cited repeatedly in the last debate and since then in ads and on the campaign trail.
On family values, a subject Republicans have used to court Christian conservatives and suburban moderates since the 1980s, likely voters now prefer Obama over McCain by 8 points. That's up from 3 points in mid-September...
Likely voters still prefer McCain over Obama on the issues of national security and foreign policy. However, McCain's advantage on national security, 12 percentage points, had narrowed sharply from the 23- to 28-point edge he'd had in weekly Ipsos/McClatchy polls since Labor Day.
Yesterday there was some talk of the polls tightening. 538 notes:
What we may have witnessed is some sort of dead cat bounce for John McCain. One possibility is that, as more voters are taking advantage of early voting windows across the country, the pollsters are finding that some voters whom they considered "unlikely" voters have in fact turned out to vote. Zogby gives Obama a 21-point lead nationwide among people who have already voted, and SurveyUSA and Civitas peg his advantage among early voters in North Carolina at around 20 and 30 points, respectively.
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