RE: Bradley effect - This year, those who do not want to admit to not voting for the black guy have taken the 'undecided' route rather than the 'say I'm gonna vote for the black-guy-and then-vote -for-the-other-guy' route. BHO's pre-primary poll numbers have always been good predictoers, but HRC's poll numbers tended to be low. The undecideds broke for her.
The up-shot of all this? Only BHO numbers which are 49% or above can really give us comfort....
• Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 43%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-44% Obama lead yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 51%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 47%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 48%-41% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 42%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to the 50%-43% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-45% Obama lead yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.1%-43.7%, a lead of 6.4 points, compared to the 49.9%-43.9% Obama lead from yesterday.
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