From Political Wire
Political Markets Suggest Obama Benefits From Edwards Exit
The Wall Street Journal looks at the political futures markets to try to determine who supporters of John Edwards will gravitate towards now that he's out of the race.
"When word of Mr. Edwards's pending withdrawal leaked, Mr. Obama's stock rose. So the markets tell us that Mr. Obama is a better replacement for an Edwards candidacy than, say, Hillary Clinton, whose stock fell on this news. Despite the Edwards bump, Mr. Obama remains the underdog, and is currently a 38% chance of winning the nomination."
"Polls have been testing Edwards voters for some time, probing them about their 'second choice' for the Democratic nomination. Polls in New Hampshire suggested Edwards voters preferred Mr. Obama to Mrs. Clinton, whereas in South Carolina, the polls suggested the reverse. The market estimates, instead, tell us who Mr. Edwards's supporters are likely to favor in those states yet to vote."
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