Progress Treads Gingerly On

From Hotline On Call:

The Big Number: 18
According to a new Mason-Dixon poll, 56% of VAans plan to vote in favor of a constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage, while 38% plan to vote against it, a margin of 18%. That's just 18%.

A reader notes these numbers and concludes that either VA isn't as conservative as many think it is, or that widespread opposition to same-sex marriage is tailing off as people turn their attention to other hot-button issues.

Historically, statewide same-sex marriage bans have passed by consistently high margins. In '04, bans passed in KY (75%-25%), GA (76%-24%), AR (75%-25%), MS (86%-14%), MT (67%-33%), ND (73%-27%), OH (62%-38%), OK (76%-24%), UT (66%-34%), MI (59%-41%) and OR (57%-23%). This year, AL passed a ban by an 81%-19% margin.

If the assumption that VA is not as conservative as we all think is to be made, compare the relatively low percentage of people favoring a ban to OR and MI, as opposed to the recently-passed AL ban. If we assume the issue's hot-button potential is waning, it may not be unreasonable to believe that AL was just the last inevitable wall to fall in the South. [REID WILSON]