Poll Talk

Political Wire reports on some new polls and gives a post to Charlie Cook, who's exasperation with the media may explain why we've seen so little of him on it.

RGN Poll: Nevada Race is Very Tight

A new Reno Gazette Journal/KTVN poll finds Nevada "continues to be a true toss-up in the presidential race." In the poll of likely voters, Sen. Barack Obama edges Sen. John McCain, 44% to 43%.

MPR Poll: Obama Holds Double-Digit Lead in Minnesota

A new Minnesota Public Radio poll in Minnesota shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by 10 points, 48% to 38%. However, the poll indicates the race is still very fluid and suggests McCain could close the gap, and possibly win in Minnesota, if he picks Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) as his running mate. Key findings: "The results show deep disapproval of President Bush's job performance and a view that the country is heading in the wrong direction. Both of those factors are helping Obama and hurting McCain. Age appears to be a negative for McCain, and lack of experience is hurting Obama."

InsiderAdvantage: North Carolina is Very Close

The latest InsiderAdvantage survey in North Carolina finds Sen. John McCain just ahead of Sen. Barack Obama, 45% to 43%.

But the biggest news might be from the U.S. Senate race where Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) and challenger Kay Hagan (D) are tied at 40% each.

NPR Poll: Obama, McCain Run Close in Battleground States

A new NPR poll of likely voters in 19 battleground states finds Sen. Barack Obama edging Sen. John McCain, 46% to 45%. President Bush won 14 of the 19 states surveyed in the 2004 presidential election.

Key findings: "Fifty-one percent of the likely voters surveyed thought Obama was too risky, compared with 38% for McCain. The Arizona senator had an advantage of 10 percentage points when it came to being seen as a strong leader."

"But the campaign has also exposed weaknesses for McCain. Asked which candidate is independent -- once his stock in trade -- 42% of those surveyed said McCain, while 46% said Obama."

Nothing Has Changed, Race Is Still Close

The following guest post is from Charlie Cook, publisher of the Cook Political Report.

In recent days, it has been killing me to watch over-caffeinated journalists, bloggers and cable networks talk about the Presidential race tightening up. The bottom line: Obama has been pretty consistently in the lead by 2-4 points since March. The gap between Democrats and Republicans on generic presidential and congressional ballot tests has narrowed ever so slightly, but it's hard to imagine that Democrats could hold such leads as the campaign begins in earnest.

The media cycle is oh-so-predictable. One poll comes out with a wider margin than the average. The 'Excitables' then push the "Obama is pulling away" mantra, despite the fact that the poll was an outlier from most of the others. Then that same polling organization (the same ones often provide a disproportionate share of the outliers) will come out with a new poll, close to the average, and the new mantra is "Obama's lead is evaporating." Meanwhile, very little, if anything, has happened.

This race, in my opinion, has been close, is close and hasn't changed much. Republicans have firmed up a bit but that is to be expected. Obama still is underperforming in his party, a sign that should be worrisome to Democrats. But, again, that is not new.

If you see the Pollster.com trend estimates or the Real Clear Politics averages get to dead even and stay there for a few days, or Obama widen his lead to six for more than a few days, you know the race has changed. But until then, avoid over interpreting outlier polls.