Thursday, February 21, 2008

What it Looks Like To Chuck

We hesitate (for a second or two) to post this but .Chuck Todd is pretty smart and reasonably cautious ....

Can Barack Obama be stopped?
Chuck Todd on why the final nail is likely going into the Clinton coffin

... Obama's trajectory is really stunning right now.

He's 10-0 since Super Tuesday, and remarkably, his smallest margin of victory came Tuesday night in Wisconsin.


That's right, Obama's 17 point blowout of Clinton in the Badger State was his poorest showing since Super Tuesday.

He's gone from a narrow pledged delegate lead (and overall delegate deficit) on Feb. 6 to a nearly insurmountable 150+ pledged delegate lead.

When you factor in superdelegates, he's still ahead by 80.

In fact, expect Obama's superdelegate deficit to Clinton to close very quickly over the next 13 days.

Right now, he's trailing her by approximately 75 superdelegates.

My guess is he'll pick up a net of 20 superdelegates before March 4. That's based on more than a hunch but I'll leave it at that.

The only plausible explanation is that Obama makes a series of mistakes that suddenly makes him unelectable. Is it possible? Yes. Is it probable? No.

Now, is it possible for Clinton to force a series of Obama missteps without it backfiring? The answer to this question is probably one of the great debates inside her campaign.

We're already hearing whispers that there are multiple camps inside Team Clinton that are split on how to go after Obama.

There are some who believe a sustained negative campaign -- something Obama has NEVER dealt with -- is a winning strategy.

But is it? Can Clinton damage Obama for the long term? Yes.

But can she damage him and keep herself politically viable in 2008? I'm not so sure.

No comments: