Hope On The Right

The right side of this page, that is.

Our great and good friend and musical compadre’ Mr. G Baker is absolutely petrified that when he wakes up next Wednesday he will feel as bad (if not significantly worse) than he has the day after the last three elections. Mr. GB is a sensitive soul who has fought in the trenches (or at least in the ad writers garrets) for many years and has like all of us, watched Dems be outplayed time after time. Certainly John Kerry has facilitated GB’s latest shpilkes.

But look at the numbers today (see right): The polls show a Dem currently up 48 seats in the house. I do believe that that may be an insurmountable number for Rove, even given the importance of rural communities (NY Times today) to Rep get-out-the-vote strategies. It will come down, but not down 25 seats.

These polls of course do not reflect any effects that Kerry’s flameout may have on the electorate (look for those number to appear starting Saturday).

Check out also the latest Times poll on voter attitudes. Just awful numbers for Republicans (currently polling 3% of the African American vote)

I figure that chances of a Senate turnover is still about 20-30%, but GT12 thinks that the Senate goal should be something for Hillary to work on for the next two years instead of screwing up the ’08 Presidential race.

I’m as scared as the next guy, or at least Mr. G Baker but I am also a guy with graduate training in statistics.