Goes To Twelve: Worried About The Polls?

Thursday, August 07, 2008

Worried About The Polls?

Last night Mr JK and I were talking and he expressed concerns over the tightness of the race.

Happily for him, Marc Ambinder, a fairly even-handed reporting blogger, addresses these concerns:

He IS leading. Over the course of two months and literally dozens of surveys, I can recall only two national polls -- one Rasmussen IVR poll and one Newsweek poll of likely voters -- showing John McCain in the lead. Everywhere, all the time, Obama's leading in the polls. The unknown guy is leading over the known guy. Obama's currently building enormous Senate-style campaigns in 18 states and has several major states -- Iowa and Wisconsin -- in the bag already. Chill.
... Right now, the type of voter who's paying attention is primed to support John McCain. After the conventions, when younger voters typically tune in -- and by younger here, I mean, under 55 or so -- then Obama's margins will widen because these folks are his folks.

His very thorough analysis is here.

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Alinsky's Rules For Radicals

Rule 1: Power is not only what you have, but what an opponent thinks you have. If your organization is small, hide your numbers in the dark and raise a din that will make everyone think you have many more people than you do.

Rule 2: Never go outside the experience of your people. The result is confusion, fear, and retreat.

Rule 3: Whenever possible, go outside the experience of an opponent. Here you want to cause confusion, fear, and retreat.

Rule 4: Make opponents live up to their own book of rules. “You can kill them with this, for they can no more obey their own rules than the Christian church can live up to Christianity.”

Rule 5: Ridicule is man’s most potent weapon. It’s hard to counterattack ridicule, and it infuriates the opposition, which then reacts to your advantage.

Rule 6: A good tactic is one your people enjoy. “If your people aren’t having a ball doing it, there is something very wrong with the tactic.”

Rule 7: A tactic that drags on for too long becomes a drag. Commitment may become ritualistic as people turn to other issues.

Rule 8: Keep the pressure on. Use different tactics and actions and use all events of the period for your purpose. “The major premise for tactics is the development of operations that will maintain a constant pressure upon the opposition. It is this that will cause the opposition to react to your advantage.”

Rule 9: The threat is more terrifying than the thing itself. When Alinsky leaked word that large numbers of poor people were going to tie up the washrooms of O’Hare Airport, Chicago city authorities quickly agreed to act on a longstanding commitment to a ghetto organization. They imagined the mayhem as thousands of passengers poured off airplanes to discover every washroom occupied. Then they imagined the international embarrassment and the damage to the city’s reputation.

Rule 10: The price of a successful attack is a constructive alternative. Avoid being trapped by an opponent or an interviewer who says, “Okay, what would you do?”

Rule 11: Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, polarize it. Don’t try to attack abstract corporations or bureaucracies. Identify a responsible individual. Ignore attempts to shift or spread the blame.

Goes To Twelve

Thursday, August 07, 2008

Worried About The Polls?

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