With all historic signs pointing to a huge Republican defeat, last evening NBC trots out it's latest poll. Now if you wathced Chris Matthews yesterday or Joe Scarborough this morning you'd think that the poll shows that BHO is unlikely to become President because suburban women seem to have trouble with him.
But read how MSNBC's own Chuck Todd describe the Poll results in this morning's 'First Read'
Days after becoming his party’s presumptive nominee and receiving Clinton’s endorsement, Obama has opened up a six-point advantage over McCain (47%-41%) in the latest NBC/WSJ poll, which is up three points from Obama’s lead in April.
Perhaps the most fascinating numbers are in the crosstabs, and some of the numbers will surprise folks who memorized every exit poll from the Democratic primaries.
Obama leads McCain among African Americans (83-7),
Hispanics (62-28),
women (52-33),
Catholics (47-40) (someone please point this out to Buchanan, Matthews and Russert),
independents (41-36)
and even blue-collar workers (47-42).
Obama is also ahead among those who said they voted for Clinton in the Democratic primaries (61-19).
Meanwhile, McCain is up among evangelicals (69-21), white men (55-35) [GT12-this is a smaller margin than Bush beat Kerry by], men (49-41), whites (47-41), and white suburban women (44-38). However, Obama has a seven-point edge (46-39) among all white women. How important is that lead? NBC/WSJ co-pollster Neil Newhouse (R) explains that Republican candidates always expect to win white men by a substantial margin, but it’s white women that usually decide the race. “If a Republican wins among white women, we usually win that election,” he says, noting that George Bush carried that group in 2000 and 2004. The poll was conducted of 1,000 registered voters from June 6-9 (Clinton endorsed Obama on June 7), and it has a +/- 3.1% margin of error.
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