Forty-Somethings May Hold Key to Election
Obama and McCain highly competitive among voters in their 40sPRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama's appeal to younger voters and John McCain's support among older voters may have created a situation where the outcome will turn on the preferences of middle-aged voters -- particularly those in their 40s.
Since Hillary Clinton suspended her campaign earlier this month, McCain and Obama have tied at 46% support among registered voters between the ages of 40 and 49, according to an analysis of Gallup Poll Daily tracking data from June 5-16. During that time, Gallup interviewed nearly 10,000 registered voters nationwide, including 1,637 in their 40s. Obama led McCain by an average of 47% to 42% among the entire sample of registered voters.
In addition to their exact tie among voters in their 40s, the candidates are also competitive among voters in their 50s, with Obama holding a slight 47% to 43% advantage.
Obama currently holds a commanding lead among younger voters, beating McCain 59% to 32% among voters under 30 and by 51% to 38% among voters in their 30s.
Currently, McCain's highest support is found with voters between the ages of 60 and 69, among whom he leads Obama by 10 percentage points, 48% to 38%. McCain also currently holds a slim edge among voters in their 70s and 80s.
Forty-something voters are a politically interesting group because some of the common political divides in the U.S. electorate are not evident within this particular age group.
For example, there is almost no gender gap in voting preferences among those in their 40s.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Not So Much Me As My Friends ...
Gallup looks at the cohort I most recently left behind:
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