Super Majority A' Comin'

From Political Wire

Democrats Poised to Pick Up More GOP Seats

A new Democracy Corps survey in the 40 most competitive Republican-held congressional districts "shows Democrats have an historic opportunity to challenge deep into Republican territory. The Democrats have a more positive image than the Republicans across these 40 Republican districts where the race between the named Republican incumbent and Democratic challenger is now even."

Key finding: "Democrats start off even with Republicans, 45% to 46%, in a challenging battleground that Republicans won by a 10-point margin in the past two elections."

Thanks For That

Republicans: Every bit as good at National Security as they are at Economics.

From Raw Story

The U.S. military isn't ready for a catastrophic attack on the country, and National Guard forces don't have the equipment or training they need for the job, according to a report.

Even fewer Army National Guard units are combat-ready today than were nearly a year ago when the Commission on the National Guard and Reserves determined that 88 percent of the units were not prepared for the fight, the panel says in a new report released Thursday.

The independent commission is charged by Congress to recommend changes in law and policy concerning the Guard and Reserves.

The commission's 400-page report concludes that the nation "does not have sufficient trained, ready forces available" to respond to a chemical, biological or nuclear weapons incident, "an appalling gap that places the nation and its citizens at greater risk."

Closing

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in California shows Hillary Clinton with a very narrow three-percentage point lead over Barack Obama. The survey was conducted in the hours immediately following Florida’s Presidential Primary and before John Edwards dropped out of the race.

Two weeks ago, Clinton led Obama by five percentage points in California.

Ready For Those Media Buys!!!

Obama Raises $32 Million in January

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama raised $32 million in the single month of January, matching his best three-month period last year, aides said Thursday.

The money positions Obama for the sweeping Feb. 5 primary contests, when 22 states will be in play for the Democratic nomination. Aides also announced that with their money they can now advertise in states beyond the Super Tuesday contest next week.

Obama is advertising in all but two of the Feb. 5 states and plans to begin advertising in states with upcoming contests, including Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska, Maine, Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C.

Campaign manager David Plouffe said the campaign attracted 170,000 new donors for a total of 650,000 donors overall.

Clinton Scandal Watch

It Can't hurt ... Obama. And Bill does do much good work through his charities....

And Do We Want This Stuff Dribbling Out For The Next 8 Years?

From The NY Times today

After Mining Deal, Financier Donated to Clinton Charity

Late on Sept. 6, 2005, a private plane carrying the Canadian mining financier Frank Giustra touched down in Almaty, a ruggedly picturesque city in southeast Kazakhstan.

Several hundred miles to the west a fortune awaited: highly coveted deposits of uranium that could fuel nuclear reactors around the world. And Mr. Giustra was in hot pursuit of an exclusive deal to tap them.

Unlike more established competitors, Mr. Giustra was a newcomer to uranium mining in Kazakhstan, a former Soviet republic. But what his fledgling company lacked in experience, it made up for in connections. Accompanying Mr. Giustra on his luxuriously appointed MD-87 jet that day was a former president of the United States, Bill Clinton.

Upon landing on the first stop of a three-country philanthropic tour, the two men were whisked off to share a sumptuous midnight banquet with Kazakhstan’s president, Nursultan A. Nazarbayev, whose 19-year stranglehold on the country has all but quashed political dissent.

Mr. Nazarbayev walked away from the table with a propaganda coup, after Mr. Clinton expressed enthusiastic support for the Kazakh leader’s bid to head an international organization that monitors elections and supports democracy. Mr. Clinton’s public declaration undercut both American foreign policy and sharp criticism of Kazakhstan’s poor human rights record by, among others, Mr. Clinton’s wife, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.

Within two days, corporate records show that Mr. Giustra also came up a winner when his company signed preliminary agreements giving it the right to buy into three uranium projects controlled by Kazakhstan’s state-owned uranium agency, Kazatomprom.

The monster deal stunned the mining industry, turning an unknown shell company into one of the world’s largest uranium producers in a transaction ultimately worth tens of millions of dollars to Mr. Giustra, analysts said.

Just months after the Kazakh pact was finalized, Mr. Clinton’s charitable foundation received its own windfall: a $31.3 million donation from Mr. Giustra that had remained a secret until he acknowledged it last month. The gift, combined with Mr. Giustra’s more recent and public pledge to give the William J. Clinton Foundation an additional $100 million, secured Mr. Giustra a place in Mr. Clinton’s inner circle, an exclusive club of wealthy entrepreneurs in which friendship with the former president has its privileges.

and this choice tidbit which says a lot about the chance for straight-talk:

... Both Mr. Clinton and Mr. Giustra at first denied that any such meeting occurred. Mr. Giustra also denied ever arranging for Kazakh officials to meet with Mr. Clinton. Wednesday, after The Times told them that others said a meeting, in Mr. Clinton’s home, had in fact taken place, both men acknowledged it.

Staying = Power

David Broder says that a non-decisve Tstunami Tuesday helps Barry O's fans (and you better be one of them) Keep Hope Alive

... the last two weeks have seen a remarkable shift of establishment opinion against her and against the prospect of placing the party's 2008 chances in the hands of her husband, Bill Clinton.

The prominence of his role in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and the mean-spiritedness of his attacks on Obama, stunned many Democrats. Clinton's behavior underlined the warning raised in this column before Iowa, by a prominent veteran of the Clinton administration, that the prospect of two presidents both named Clinton sharing a single White House would be a huge problem for the Democrats in November if she is the nominee.

The negatives on the Clintons have brought much support to Obama, most notably that of Ted Kennedy, the most prestigious figure in the Democratic establishment in Washington. But it is also Obama's own appeal that is being talked about across the country from Massachusetts to Arizona by the younger generation of governors, senators and representatives who share with him an eagerness to "turn the page" on the battles of the past.

Obama is not inevitable, but the longer the race continues, the greater that hunger. And the growing recognition of McCain's appeal to independents also works in Obama's favor.

Uwired Unleashed

GT12's favorite TX/East Coast correspondent has a new blog.

UW has often been there for us in the past, providing fresh ananlysis and outrage when GT12 is overwhlemed by work or Clinton-schmerz.

Visit the innocently titled 'I Have Sexual Tourette's today.

Judgement Vs. Experience

Afraid that Hillary's "35 years of Experience" is really a strength?

Presidential Biographer Robert Dalleck writes today in The New York Daily News.

Obama's lack of experience shouldn't be considered a liability. Many of our most experienced Presidents have made disastrous choices. In the long life of the republic, judgment trumps experience, almost every time.

First, some context. When Kennedy ran for President, he had already served in the U.S. House and the Senate for 13 years (into the start of a second Senate term) and had traveled extensively in Europe, Asia and the Middle East. In the Second World War, he had commanded a P.T. boat - and emerged a hero. He had written a Pulitzer Prize-winning book on political courage.

Put that alongside Obama's record of public service: seven years in the Illinois State Senate, half a term in the U.S. Senate and assorted other positions of debatable relevance to the presidency.

But all of Kennedy's knowledge and experience, especially in matters of war and peace, did not insulate him from the blunder at the Bay of Pigs in Cuba, which initially undermined his standing as a foreign policy leader. There, Kennedy simply exercised bad judgment; it strains credibility to believe that he would have made the right decision if only he had spent one more term in the Senate.

In the Cuban Missile Crisis, Kennedy relied more on his own judgment - overriding many gray-haired military men - and the most dangerous moment in Cold War history was resolved with far better results for the nation.

A look at other Presidents underlines the lesson. In the four years before the Civil War, James Buchanan [the only man between 'W' and GT12's Award as 'Worst President Ever] led the nation. He had held so many high offices over the years that he was known as "Mr. Government." It didn't help him or the country a jot.

Buchanan failed to head off the bloodshed that would soon engulf the country, and he is now remembered as one of, if not the worst, President in our history.

Inexperienced Abraham Lincoln was, happily, another story.

Woodrow Wilson had an impressive record before entering the Oval Office; history has not been kind to his legacy - or to his decision to enter the "war to end all wars."

Herbert Hoover, one of the most experienced public figures ever to get to the White House, demonstrated dreadful judgment in believing that the Depression would resolve itself with minimal government intervention.

By contrast, Franklin Roosevelt judged traditional strategies for ending the economic downturn inadequate, and instead gave the country a New Deal - a slew of federally sponsored programs including the SEC, the FDIC, Social Security and a minimum wage - that continue to make the country more humane and more just.

In foreign affairs as well, FDR sensed when to depart from conventional wisdom. In 1941, after Hitler had invaded the Soviet Union, Roosevelt's military chiefs, fearful that the Nazis would roll over the Soviets the way they had conquered Western Europe, advised against providing lend-lease aid to Russia. Roosevelt wisely concluded that the Soviets would hold out and provided needed supplies.

No, experience is not irrelevant - but it's no guarantee of anything either. And when judgment and experience clash, judgment is the decisive presidential virtue.

His Stock Is Rising?

Readings from a group even more hyper-reactive than Ann Coulter on a bender

From Political Wire

Political Markets Suggest Obama Benefits From Edwards Exit

The Wall Street Journal looks at the political futures markets to try to determine who supporters of John Edwards will gravitate towards now that he's out of the race.

"When word of Mr. Edwards's pending withdrawal leaked, Mr. Obama's stock rose. So the markets tell us that Mr. Obama is a better replacement for an Edwards candidacy than, say, Hillary Clinton, whose stock fell on this news. Despite the Edwards bump, Mr. Obama remains the underdog, and is currently a 38% chance of winning the nomination."

"Polls have been testing Edwards voters for some time, probing them about their 'second choice' for the Democratic nomination. Polls in New Hampshire suggested Edwards voters preferred Mr. Obama to Mrs. Clinton, whereas in South Carolina, the polls suggested the reverse. The market estimates, instead, tell us who Mr. Edwards's supporters are likely to favor in those states yet to vote."

Paint Your Opponent Red

A little old fashioned discourse from Mr. Change.

Polite and True.

Watch out for Clinton's victim-card play.

DENVER - Democratic White House candidate Barack Obama on Wednesday said rival Hillary Rodham Clinton is too polarizing to win the presidency and she has taken positions shared by President Bush and Republican candidate John McCain for political expediency.

Obama depicted Clinton as a calculating, poll-tested divisive figure who will only inspire greater partisan divisions as she sides with Republicans on issues like trade, the role of lobbyists in politics and national security. At the same time, he elevated McCain, fresh off victory in Florida's crucial primary, as the likely Republican nominee.

"Democrats will win in November and build a majority in Congress not by nominating a candidate who will unite the other party against us, but by choosing one who can unite this country around a movement for change," Obama said, speaking as rival John Edwards was pulling out of the race in New Orleans, leaving a Clinton-Obama fight for the Democratic nomination.

"It is time for new leadership that understands the way to win a debate with John McCain or any Republican who is nominated is not by nominating someone who agreed with him on voting for the war in Iraq or who agreed with him in voting to give George Bush the benefit of the doubt on Iran, who agrees with him in embracing the Bush-Cheney policy of not talking to leaders we don't like, who actually differed with him by arguing for exceptions for torture before changing positions when the politics of the moment changed," Obama said.

"We need to offer the American people a clear contrast on national security, and when I am the nominee of the Democratic Party, that is exactly what I will do," he said.

A Real Restoration?

From MSNBC First Read:

On Nightline last night, Clinton seemed to admit that her husband’s presidency was a co-presidency. It was a pretty striking admission. “MCFADDEN: Here's what a lot of people want to know. Can you control [Bill]? SEN. CLINTON: Oh, of course. … MCFADDEN: Newsweek magazine says flatly, if you're elected, it will be a co-presidency… Maybe it's a good idea? SEN. CLINTON: It’s not. I learned that. I learned that the hard way.” She learned that the hard way? Interestingly, at the time of course, the Clinton White House vigorously denied the idea of a co-presidency because it wasn't politically prudent. Now is history being rewritten a bit?

Planet Fucking Earth

Must See Video here (but not at the office ...)

Must See Blog

Album Art at it's most, uh, involving ... Sleeveface

HRC per Europa

About that need to repair the damage done by W ...

Her campaign managers probably think they are creating a perception of her as a bold, decisive and humane woman with the extraordinary intelligence required to cope with America's and the world's problems. To non-Americans she appears to be a mean street fighter who might be a vindictive and war-mongering President if her pride is crossed. She looks like the caricature ugly American who will stoop to anything to win. If she does this now, she might do so in foreign policy as well.

Love That Ted

Ted Says:

"With Barack Obama, we will turn the page on the old politics of misrepresentation and distortion. With Barack Obama we will close the book on the old politics of race against race, gender against gender, ethnic group against ethnic group, and straight against gay."

Andrew Notes:

no other candidate has defended gay people as "brothers and sisters" without prompting in front of a non-gay crowd in the height of an election campaign. The Clintons don't do that. In fact, they have often done the opposite, using the fear of gay people as a way to triangulate for their own purposes. That matters to me. It should matter to gays and straights who care about equality under the law. On policy, there is no difference between Clinton and Obama. In terms of character, there is all the difference in the world.

All the difference in the world.

Women Of The Party Unite!

There doesn't seem to be anything wrong with Kansas these days.

From Mark Ambinder:

Sebelius Plans To Endorse Obama

Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) will deliver the Democratic response to the State of the Union on Monday.

And then Tuesday or Wednesday, she plans to endorse Barack Obama, numerous Democratic sources said.

The sources said that Sebelius decided some time ago that Obama was her candidate but decided to wait until after the State of the Union.

An Obama spokesperson declined to comment.

"Right now, the Governor's focus is on delivering her response to the President's State of the Union message Monday night," said Nicole Corcoran, communications director to Sebelius. "The Governor will have more to say about the presidential campaign after Monday."

Sulli-Freude

Andrew Sullivan celebrates his 'I told You So' moment (I never thought that he'd actually have one ...).

Guilty!

The Clintons push the envelope again - on the Michigan and Florida delegates. Ed Morrissey and Josh Marshall come together. Maybe the Clintons can bring the country together again - in revulsion at their expediency. Jon Chait crosses the anti-Clinton Rubicon for the first time:

Something strange happened the other day. All these different people -- friends, co-workers, relatives, people on a liberal e-mail list I read -- kept saying the same thing: They've suddenly developed a disdain for Bill and Hillary Clinton. Maybe this is just a coincidence, but I think we've reached an irrevocable turning point in liberal opinion of the Clintons.

Grief

Joe Klein

It may well be true that any Democrat is going to have to handle that sort of sewage in the general election, but I've now--belatedly!--figured out that the real audacity in Barack Obama's campaign--far more than his positions on the issues, which almost seem an afterthought--is his outrageous belief that the entire country, not just Democrats, wants to see a straight up election; that the entire country is tired of the pestilence of tactical tricks that the Clintons learned from their co-dynasts, the Bushes. (The latest example being their sudden, sociopathic emphasis on the importance of the Florida primary, a contest all three candidates had agreed to eschew at the behest of the Democatic National Committee.)

It is a hell of a bet Obama has made. And nearly 40 years of political, uhm, experience tells me that it isn't a very wise one...but I must also say that it is truly sad to see Bill and Hillary Clinton on the wrong side of it.

... But You Run Just Like A Little Girl

MoDo, the left's biggest Clinton Hater

Two Against One

By MAUREEN DOWD

... Bill has merged with his wife totally now, talking about “we” and “us.” “I never did anything major without discussing it with her,” he told a crowd here. “We’ve been having this conversation since we first met in 1971, and I don’t think we’ll stop now.” He suggested as First Lad that “I can help to sell the domestic program

It’s odd that the first woman with a shot at becoming president is so openly dependent on her husband to drag her over the finish line. She handed over South Carolina to him, knowing that her support here is largely derivative.