The Party Of Fiscal Responsibility

Andrew Sullivan (Clinton-Hater) Notes:

What if the Republican president had hewed to the projected spending levels of his Democratic predecessor - you know, that flaming liberal, Bill Clinton? If you project the Clinton administration's 2001 plans for long-term spending and you allow for all the new defense spending in Iraq and Afghanistan and elsewhere, you still end up with a surplus. The difference is Republican recklessness.

Seriously, Cleveland, How Are You?

Hello again, Cleveland! It's me, Bob Seger. You may recall me from the rock-and-roll concert last night. First off, let me say that it was such an...

Timing Is Everything

Look what came in the mail ... TODAY!!!!!!

A DC plot?????

We Win

Sullivan reports:

That's the calculation of the networks at this point, it seems. A narrow victory:

The Obama camp projects topping Clinton by nine delegates, 845 to 836.
NBC News, which is projecting delegates based on the Democratic Party's complex
formula, figures Obama will wind up with 840 to 849 delegates, versus 829 to 838
for Clinton.

But it allows the Obama camp to point out - correctly - that they won a majority of the contests yesterday, won in a wider variety of red and blue states, and won in the number of delegates counted. Obama is also winning in fundraising. That's a pretty impressive tailwind for this weekend and next Tuesday.

Here we go

From Real Clear Politics

While no winner emerged tonight, a protracted campaign is better for Obama, and what might be his roll toward the nomination begins in four short days. On Saturday, voters in three states head to the polls or caucuses, and in all three, Obama has hefty advantages.

In Washington State, the biggest prize available this weekend, a total of 68 delegates will be decided in caucuses. Four years ago, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean did better in Washington than he did in any place outside his home state and the District of Columbia. Washington is one of the most highly educated states in the country, and the dominace of white Seattle liberals in the electorate could favor Obama heavily.

Washington State political watchers on both sides of the contest agree Obama has the leg up. Clinton backers privately admit that their candidate will likely lose on Saturday, while Obama supporters play up their organizational advantages and speak confidently of wins throughout the liberal western half of the state, from which most delegates will be allocated.

In Nebraska, just 21 delegates are available at that state's caucuses, but given the amount of effort Obama exerted in Idaho -- he opened an office in Boise, the only candidate to do so -- to win that state's 16 delegates, he could play strongly there as well. Obama has support from the state's only Democratic member of the congressional delegation, Senator Ben Nelson.

And if Nebraska's geographical and political positions, namely a red state in the Plains, are any indication, he will perform strongly there: Obama won North Dakota, Kansas, Missouri and Colorado on Tuesday, and won neighboring Iowa a month ago. Plains states, especially those President Bush won in 2004, have gone heavily for Obama so far this year.

93

CNN calculates yesterday's delegate win total - Clinton 825 Obama 732.

Obama needed to get within 100 delegate to call the night a 'win'.

A tight battle in New Mexico where they are still counting won't change that spread.

93

CNN calculates yesterday's delegate win total - Clinton 825 Obama 732.

Obama needed to get within 100 delegate to call the night a 'win'.

A tight battle in New Mexico where they are still counting won't change that spread.

Hmmmm

MA for HRC. what's with those exit polls?

Not What HRC WANTED

Drudge reports the exit polls:

Obama: Alabama: Obama 60, Clinton 37... Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45... Connecticut: Obama 53, Clinton 45... Delaware: Obama 56, Clinton 42... Illinois: Obama 70, Clinton 30... Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 48... Missouri: Obama 50, Clinton 46... New Jersey: Obama 53, Clinton 47...

Clinton: Arkansas: Clinton 72, Obama 26... California: Clinton 50, Obama 47... New York: Clinton 56, Obama 43... Oklahoma: Clinton 61, Obama 31... Ten

Vote Early, Vote Often

Here in Chicago we like to start the kids' participation in Democratic politics ASAP

More Explanation

Re: California Polls.

Leave it to CA to have poll results that are so screwed up.

Josh Patashnik at the New Republic looks deeper ...

About Those Dueling California Polls
As you might have seen elsewhere, the two new California polls out today show wildly diverging results: Zogby has Obama up 49-36, while SurveyUSA has Clinton up 52-42. As Josh Marshall says, somebody's gonna end up looking pretty stupid. Most likely they both will--I don't expect the final tally to be more than five or six points in either direction. But SurveyUSA will probably end up looking worse.

I took a look at the crosstabs of the SurveyUSA poll (I can't seem to find them for Zogby--if any commenters can, please link!). Unfortunately, one of the most relevant things to look at is the relative proportion of African-American and Latino votes in the electorate (since, by all accounts, Obama will win the black vote overwhelmingly and Clinton will win the Latino vote easily, though by a smaller margin). In the 2004 Democratic primary, 16 percent of voters were Latino and 8 percent were black. SurveyUSA estimates the 2008 Democratic electorate as being 26 percent Latino and 9 percent black. To be frank, I would be shocked if those numbers end up being correct--particularly given the disproportionate surge in black turnout we saw in South Carolina. If I had to guess, I'd say the proportions will be about 19 and 11--which is more in line with what other pollsters predict. This alone would swing the result several points toward Obama from what SurveyUSA has.

In addition, SurveyUSA has Hillary beating Obama by one point in the Bay Area, which defies all conventional wisdom. The Field Poll, which has more expertise polling California than anyone, had Obama winning in the Bay Area 41-31--and this was just at the beginning of what looks like a late Obama surge in the state. Hillary will win the state if turnout in Los Angeles and the Inland Empire are large enough, but, again, I'd be very surprised if she won the Bay Area (full of latté liberals and African-Americans) outright.

One final point: SurveyUSA doesn't say what percentage of Democratic primary voters are unaffiliated with either party (or "decline to state" in California parlance). But most models, I think, are underestimating these voters (who break heavily for Obama) as a share of the electorate. Field had them at 13 percent of Democratic primary voters, and far be it from me to question the oracle. But consider: decline-to-state voters can only vote in the Democratic primary, and it's easy for them to do so--they just show up at the polling place and ask for a Democratic ballot. They constitute 31 percent of eligible Democratic primary voters--that is, if you add up the number of Democrats and decline-to-state voters in the state, the latter make up 31 percent of that total. Now, of course, some of those folks lean Republican, and decline-to-state voters are less likely to vote in a primary generally--so the total decline-to-state share of the electorate won't approach 31 percent. But given the salience of the race and the enthusiasm it seems to be generating, I'd bet decline-to-state voters will make up closer to 20 percent of the electorate. This would add another couple points to Obama's total. Without having seen the crosstabs, I'd bet that Zogby has Obama up by so much because (1) he has a more favorable black/Latino composition for Obama, and (2) he has a more generous estimate of the decline-to-state share of the vote.

Bottom line, the race remains very, very close--Clinton's advantage among voters who have already mailed in their ballots should not be underestimated. But I will make two predictions. First, Obama will win among voters who go to the polls today. And second, Clinton will not win by double digits. (Obama probably won't either, but there's an outside shot.)

Who's Ready For Tomorrow?

Dan Balz from the Washington Post outlines the Obama Strategy

Which Democrat Is Positioned for A Long Campaign After Today?

8) Obama may have the edge on this. His $32 million fundraising record in January shows that he will have more money than Clinton to wage a long campaign. He will also have more time to become better known in upcoming states than he did in the 22 states in which he is competing today.

The next round of primaries and caucuses this month tends to look better for him than for Clinton. Her strategists are pessimistic about her chances in Washington, Louisiana, Wisconsin and Maryland, as well as in the District. But they see Ohio and Texas on March 4 as critical states in which she has a foundation of support and could add to her delegate strength.

Rules for selecting delegates are structured in a way that makes it difficult for candidates to gain a decisive advantage unless they begin winning by margins approaching 20 percentage points. In this race, that could be difficult. At the same time, if one candidate falls behind in the count by as many as 200 pledged delegates, making up that deficit will be extremely difficult, given the rules.

Clinton's strategists are counting on the support of "superdelegates" -- those party leaders and elected officials who automatically have seats at the convention -- to build her delegate lead. In the early stages, she has such an advantage. But in the past, superdelegates tended to follow election returns. If Obama wins primaries consistently, he is likely to attract more and more superdelegates.

Momentum and psychology therefore will play an important role over the next few weeks. Clinton may be stronger in a war of attrition, particularly if she wins big battleground states in March. But a number of strategists surveyed over the weekend said Obama might have more room for growth in his support, and if he can develop a sense of momentum she would be at a disadvantage.

Viewers Guide

Some Things To Know as you follow the returns tonight:

From Political Wire:

What to Watch For Tonight

To make some sense of today's voting, Political Wire reviewed all the polls, surveyed our favorite pundits and flipped a coin when necessary in an attempt to highlight the key races.

Here's how we rate the races for Democrats:

Advantage Clinton:
Arkansas, New York, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Tennessee

Advantage Obama:
Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Minnesota, Kansas, North Dakota

No Clear Favorite:
Alaska, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Missouri, Delaware, Utah, Massachusetts, American Samoa, Democrats Abroad

Here's how we rate the races for Republicans:

Advantage McCain:
Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Montana, New York, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Tennessee

Advantage Romney:
Alaska, Colorado, Massachusetts, West Virginia, Utah

No Clear Favorite:
California, Missouri, Georgia, Minnesota

---- And ---

About California

All eyes are on California, as most polls show the Democratic presidential race either very close or completely up in the air.

For example:
The latest Reuters/C -Span/Zogby poll shows Obama leading Clinton, 49% to 36%.

The latest SurveyUSA poll gives the edge to Clinton, 52% to 42%.

But Marc Ambinder notes it may not matter who actually wins due to the strange rules for awarding delegates. "If, in many congressional districts in California, a Democrat does not receive more than 62% of the vote, he or she will receive the same number of delegates from that CD as the he or she who finishes second. Hence Hillary Clinton could win California by, say, 20 points... and take a sliver of a delegate advantage there."

Further confusing the situation: The Hotline notes we may not get the final delegate tally until Friday.

From Salon

Predicting California isn't easy - Alex Koppelman
Looking for some early sign about how the Democratic race in California, one of the most important states on that side of the aisle, will shake out tonight? Good luck.
On the one hand, you could look to the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll, released today, and decide that Sen. Barack Obama has a nearly overwhelming advantage in the state. That poll shows Obama leading rival Sen. Hillary Clinton 49 percent to 36 percent, with a margin of error of 3.3 percent, and has the momentum strongly in Obama's favor.

But on the other hand, there's the latest SurveyUSA poll, which shows nearly the exact opposite result. That survey, conducted over the same dates as the aforementioned one, has Clinton leading 52 percent to 42 percent. SurveyUSA characterizes the results as showing that "Hillary Clinton appears to fend off a late charge from Barack Obama."

If you're hoping that at least by tonight you'll know who -- if anyone -- was right about how California will shake out, we've got some bad news on that front as well.

On Monday, the San Francisco Chronicle's Politics Blog noted, "Want to know who will win the California primary? You'll probably be waiting until Wednesday morning -- and maybe longer," and quoted Stephen Weir, the president of the California Association of Clerks and Election Officials and the top election official in Contra Costa County, as saying, "The East Coast is going to tune in the next morning and we are still going to be counting."

And, from Walter Shapiro

Here are a few things to watch for on the Democratic side early in the evening before everyone starts treading water in the tidal wave of returns.

Georgia -- The first returns of the night will begin to roll in when the polls close at 7 p.m. (EST). While no one will be proclaiming, "As Georgia goes, so goes the nation," it will be illuminating to see if Obama attracts anything like the 78 percent of the African-American vote as he did in neighboring South Carolina. In South Carolina, John Edwards (who has since dropped out) finished first among white men, with 44 percent in a three-way race. It will be worth watching how Georgia now splits in a race between a woman and an African-American.

Alabama and Tennessee -- The polls here close at 8 p.m. (EST) and these states should quickly indicate whether the trends from the Georgia exit polls can be extrapolated through the South.

Illinois -- Obama's home state (8 p.m. EST closing time) should not offer much suspense about the outcome. But this is another place where it would be worth watching to see how white male Democrats split their vote in downstate Illinois.

Massachusetts -- At 8 p.m. (EST) we will also get a quick test of the power of endorsements. From Sens. Ted Kennedy and John Kerry to Gov. Deval Patrick, this state has become the launching pad of Obama campaign surrogates. But Massachusetts also has a vibrant blue-collar Democratic tradition -- and Clinton's performance among lower-income voters could be a bellwether for the evening.

Connecticut -- The candidates' own polls clearly indicated that Connecticut is up for grabs, since both Clinton and Obama were campaigning in the state Monday. (The best way to read a campaign's strategy is to watch where they send the candidate.) With the polls closing at 8 p.m. (EST), we should know fast the power of Obama-mania in Clinton's backyard. Working against Obama is that this is a primary open only to registered Democrats.

New Jersey -- Results from the fourth largest delegate haul of the evening will start coming in at 8 p.m. EST. Since independents can vote in the Garden State (unlike New York and Connecticut), we will soon know whether Obama is demonstrating his crossover appeal to these swing voters.

Arizona -- At 9 p.m. (EST) we will get our first look at the Latino vote in a primary out West. If Clinton does not roll up a large margin among this group in Arizona, it does not bode well for California, where the polls close at 11 p.m. (EST).

Minnesota -- While it is always difficult to draw larger conclusions from caucuses (since only a fraction of registered Democrats participate), Minnesota has perhaps the most vibrant caucus tradition in the Democratic Party, aside from Iowa. The caucus voting should be over by 9 p.m. EST -- and we should get another snapshot of how Obama is doing among party activists.

By the time we finally learn what happened in American Samoa (either Clinton or Obama will presumably come out with a 2-to-1 majority in the caucuses), our attention will probably have shifted to next Tuesday's Potomac primary with Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia all voting Feb. 12.

Even though a numerical majority of Democratic delegates will have been selected by the time the final returns trickle in on Wednesday, the real Super Duper Party Pooper Tuesday may come on March 4 when Texas and Ohio hold primaries that could (note the conditional) select the nominee.

From Chuck Todd at MSNBC

Looking for the break: But campaigns rarely deliver split decisions, and that’s why it’s possible that the Democratic electorate could break one way or the other. What if undecideds all go one way? And don't assume we think we know which direction they will break. We could easily explain how women power a break for Clinton, allowing her to win most states on the board today -- just as we could easily see undecideds breaking Obama and him cutting into Clinton's massive advantages among women and Hispanics thanks to a surge of younger voters that alter the makeup of electorates. The polls over the last week seem to indicate momentum is on the side of Obama, but we've all seen this movie before (think New Hampshire).

How to count delegates: On the Republican side, it's VERY easy; there are enough winner-take-call states to allow anyone who did ok in high school algebra to follow along. The Democratic side is not so easy: The threshold for winning an extra delegate (from 3-3 in a six-delegate district to 4-2 to 4-3 to 5-2 in a seven-delegate district etc.) changes. Then you add in the superdelegates. The Clinton campaign claims about a 100-delegate advantage among the supers. So if she gets any delegate advantage tonight, then she'll claim a 100+ delegate lead early and often. Obviously, Obama's folks would like to win the night on the delegate front, so that Clinton's super lead is cut into the double digits. Speaking of the spin war, both the Clinton and Obama campaigns did their best yesterday to lower expectations, with Team Clinton reminding folks this could be a convention fight (can you say Florida and Michigan credential fight?) and the Obama folks reminding the media that Clinton's still the favorite tonight to win more delegates and more states. The truth? As always, somewhere in between!

Go-Bama!

I have voted for the next President of the United States and let me tell you, after all the months of waitng, it feels good.

Hat tip to Mr JK for this post's title. Mr JK will be rising from his sick bed to do the good work of getting Barry O votes (well, at least one.)

No Wusses In Chicago

Vanity Fair Examines the Career of Barack Obama:

The Barack Obama who wrote so poignantly of adolescent alienation and the search for racial identity is the same Barack Obama who learned, the hard way, how to deal with the likes of Emil Jones Jr., a man whose cell-phone ring tone is the theme from The Godfather. Obama’s good looks and soft-spoken willingness to ponder aloud some of the inanities of modern politics have masked the hard inner core and unyielding ambition that have long burned beneath the surface shimmer. He is not, and never has been, soft. He’s not laid-back. He’s not an accidental man. His friends and family may be surprised by the rapidity of his rise, but they’re not surprised by the fact of it.

Closer Still

Cook/RT Poll: Obama Passes Clinton

Political Wire got an advance look at the latest Cook Political Report/RT Strategies national survey which shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. Hillary Clinton, 43% to 37%, just outside the 5.1 point margin of error.

In the GOP race, Sen. John McCain leads Mitt Romney, 39% to 24%, with Mike Huckabee third with 18%.In general election match ups, McCain leads Clinton by 4 points, 45 to 41 percent; Obama leads McCain by two points, 45 to 43 percent.

CNN Poll: Obama Catches Clinton

The latest CNN/Opinion Research national survey finds Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. Hillary Clinton, 49% to 46%, within the survey's 4.5 point margin of error."The poll is consistent with other national surveys during the past few days. A CNN averaging of five national polls conducted in the last few days -- a 'poll of polls' -- puts Clinton at 45 percent and Obama at 43 percent. Those five surveys were done by CNN/Opinion Research Corp., Gallup, Pew, ABC and CBS."

In the Republican race, Sen. John McCain leads Mitt Romney, 44% to 29%, with Mike Huckabee at 18%.

Deseret Morning News: Obama, Romney Hold Leads in Utah

A new Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV poll in Utah shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. Hillary Clinton among likely voters, 53% to 29%.

On the Republican side, it's a blowout with Mitt Romney registering 84% support, followed by just 4% for Sen. John McCain.The Utah primaries are on Feb. 5.

Getting There

Reuters/Zogby: Obama Surges in Latest Tracking Poll

The latest Reuters/C-Span/Zogby tracking poll shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. Hillary Clinton in three of the four key Democratic Super Tuesday races surveyed -- Georgia, Missouri, and California -- and the two were tied in the fourth, New Jersey.

On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain leads in three out of four key Super Tuesday states -- including winning more than 50% support in New York and New Jersey -- but trails Mitt Romney in California.

Will We Get There By Tuesday?

Or will we have to wait until March?

(click on pic to expand)

Another Example Of GT12 Leadership

Remember when we urged everybody to respond to Barry O's NH, uh, set back with a little cash?

Plouffe said the money came in at a consistent pace throughout the month, but the campaign's strongest day of fundraising came immediately after the New Hampshire primary, which Obama narrowly lost to Clinton.

"We took a lot of encouragement from that, because it showed the resolve of our existing donor base," Plouffe said.