Dumb

Forget about the dissing of New Orleans ... Whatever happened to the West and North? The Dems allow the majority of the debates to land in the opponent's ballpark.

The Commission on Presidential Debates has picked Oxford, Miss.; St. Louis; Nashville; and Hempstead, N.Y., as the sites of the presidential and vice-presidential debates in the general election campaign next year.

Likeable?

There really are two America's ...

AP-Yahoo Poll: If the election were about likable people, Obama and Giuliani would lead field

By NANCY BENAC
From Associated PressNovember 20, 2007 7:10 AM EST

WASHINGTON - Democrats and Republicans alike have strong opinions about who has the best chance of capturing the presidency in 2008 - Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, that is - but that is not necessarily the candidate they would rather go bowling with, take along on a family vacation or even vote for.

An in-depth survey of more than 2,000 people offers a window into the thinking of Americans as they look far beyond electability in making their choices for president - grappling with matters of personality, policy and religion in sorting through the candidates.

... Which Democrat is judged the most likable? None has a clear advantage among Democratic voters, with Clinton, Obama and Edwards running about even. Among all voters, however, Obama has the edge.

...Which Republican is the most likable? Giuliani gets the nod, both from Republican voters and among voters overall.

Hold a sheer popularity contest, pitting the most likable Democrat vs. the best-liked Republican, and it would be Obama over Giuliani, 54 percent to 46 percent.

Poll Dancing

Salon Sums up the new WaPo Poll with some modicum of sobriety:

Obama edges up in Iowa

When the Washington Post/ABC News Poll checked in on Iowa in July, Barack Obama had the support of 27 percent of would-be caucus goers while Hillary Clinton and John Edwards had 26 percent each.

A new Post-ABC poll released Monday night has Obama with the support of 30 percent of would-be caucus goers. Clinton is still at 26 percent, and Edwards' support has dropped to 22 percent.

Before going any further, we should note that the new poll has 4.5-point margin of error, so just about any conclusions that could be drawn from differences between the first poll and the second -- it's a "surge," says Team Obama; will you look at Missouri, says Team Clinton -- have to be viewed through a prism of serious skepticism.

That having been said, there are a few observations worth observing about the numbers behind the numbers here.

Gender: Clinton and Obama are running neck-and-neck among women, but Obama has a significant lead among men; he gets support from 28 percent of men while she gets just 19 percent, a number that's lower than John Edwards' and not much higher than Bill Richardson's.

Honesty: Roughly three-quarters of likely Iowa caucus goers say Obama and Edwards are willing to say what they actually think; only 50 percent hold this view about Clinton.

Experience: Likely caucus goers say that Clinton, Edwards and Richardson all have better experience for the presidency than Obama does, but Clinton's numbers on this point are dropping: Fifty percent said she had the best experience in July; just 38 percent do now.

Second choices: Under Iowa's caucus system, candidates are eliminated from contention if they don't draw the support of 15 percent of caucus-goers, thereby freeing their voters to get behind somebody else. That means second choices can matter, and Obama has a significant advantage over Clinton there. When you combine voters who favor Obama now with those who list him as their second choice, you get to 55 percent. Do the same math with Clinton, and your get only as high as 44 percent.

The rest of the pack: At the risk of being accused of ignoring anyone but the front-runners, let's just say that Iowa voters are pretty much ignoring them, too. Richardson is at 11 percent; Joe Biden is at 4 percent (up from 2 percent in July); Dennis Kucinich is holding steady at 2 percent and Chris Dodd still has one percent.

Tie Your Mothership Down

Brian May Named University Chancellor

LONDON - Brian May, rock star and astrophysicist, has been appointed chancellor of Liverpool John Moores University.

May will be installed as the university's figurehead leader early next year, it was announced Monday. The 60-year-old Queen guitarist said the appointment was "a great honor and a great new challenge."

He is an honorary fellow of Liverpool John Moores University, which has a well-known astrophysics research institute.

"Brian May is an intensely talented individual who achieved global success with Queen," said the university's vice chancellor, Michael Brown, in a statement. "In this age of celebrity culture, it is rare to find someone who has fame, fortune and universal acclaim and yet who remains true to his core values of learning and enlightenment."

May succeeds Cherie Booth, wife of former Prime Minister Tony Blair.

Liverpool John Moores University was formed in 1992 from the former Liverpool Polytechnic.

May completed his doctorate in astrophysics earlier this year. He was awarded his qualification by Imperial College London.

He was an astrophysics student at Imperial College when he joined Freddie Mercury and Roger Taylor to form Queen in 1970, but dropped his doctorate as the glam rock band became more successful.

May is the co-author of "Bang! The Complete History of the Universe," which was published last year.

FoxNews is to Bush as CNN is to Clinton?

How slanted was the debate? ....

It's a big question this week.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

My neighborhood still doesn't have a Starbucks!

Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Starbucks Corp., the world's largest chain of coffee shops, fell the most in six years in New York trading after the company lowered its profit and sales forecasts following a first-ever decline in U.S. customer visits.

The stock declined $1.99, or 8.3 percent, to $22.11 at 11:51 a.m. in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading, the biggest decline since November 2001. The shares have lost 32 percent this year before today.

Starbucks raised prices by an average of 9 cents a cup in July, causing U.S. customers who face higher food, fuel and housing expenses to go to McDonald's Corp. and Dunkin' Donuts LLC for cheaper coffee. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is among the few retailers to benefit from shoppers seeking lower-cost alternatives after reducing its prices ahead of the holidays.

What To Think?

George Will, quoted in a weekly Standard Blog:

Large undertakings in domestic policy --e.g., the enactments of Social Security in 1935 and of Medicare in 1965 - often follow landslide elections. In the 15 presidential elections since the Second World War, only twice has the Democratic candidate won 50 percent of the popular vote - Lyndon Johnson emphatically in 1964 and Jimmy Carter narrowly in 1976. In 2008, Obama is more likely than Clinton to win an impressive electoral vote total that will look like a mandate. Conservatives should think: Although Republicans have much to fear in 2008, they might have less to fear from her as a candidate and, if she wins, as a president, than they would from Obama.

And Matt Contnetti the Weekly Standard blogger's response:

Recently I've come across more than a few conservative Republicans who are open to voting for Obama should the Republicans nominate a polarizing figure like Giuliani. I asked one of them why they would vote for someone whose ideological leanings would result in policies with which conservatives disagree. "Well," this person said, "You've got to remember: the idelogical stuff never gets done." I hope he's right.

Elitist Democrats

And I mean the real elites ... not a bunch of over-educated granola eaters that Karl Rove and Ton Delay want you to believe are 'high and mighty'. No the dems seem to be the party of the great American Dream...

The Wall Street Journal senses the early stages of a sea change perhaps as big as the post-Civil Rights Act emmigration of the Southern Racist from the Dems to the GOP.

Somewhere, Bill O'Reilly is weeping.

"The Democratic Party stands more for creating equal opportunity," says Jim Kelley, who buys companies for the $7 billion private-equity firm Vestar Capital Partners, which is headquartered on New York's Park Avenue.

Angela Williams, a city bus driver whose route passes Kelley's Denver office building, earns $39,000 a year, but she tells Harwood that social issues and tax cuts are her primary issues.

"I'm pro-life," she declares to Harwood. "Basically, that's why I'm Republican."

Williams, who lives in a working class neighborhood also agrees with GOP attacks on Democrats' economic policies.

"Democrats are all for social programs which raise my taxes," Williams says. "I'm not working to pay for people to sit at home watching cable all day."

Kelley has a much more nuanced approach to economic policy, and he says pocketbook issues are low on his priority list. Kelley tells Harwood the Democratic Party "speaks to me on issues of the environment, and even more to me on national security." To Kelley, the Republicans are too concerned with "so-called moral issues" like gay marriage.

...

In the 2004 election, exit surveys showed President Bush defeated John Kerry by 58% to 41% among those earning more than $100,000. In 2006, Republican House candidates edged Democrats among that group by 51% to 47%.

Now the Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll shows Americans earning more than $100,000 want Democrats to win the White House next year by 48% to 41%, and want Democrats to win control of Congress by 45% to 42%.

Campaign-finance data represents another yardstick. The top five Democratic presidential candidates raised $242 million through the first three quarters of 2007, according to Federal Election Commission figures compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics. The top five Republican candidates have raised $167 million.

The Bright Side Of Learned Helplessness

From Polital Wire:

Despite a slew of recent polls findings Americans unhappy with Congress, a new USA Today/Gallup poll finds that the majority of Americans still hold a favorable opinion of the Democratic Party. 54% of respondents viewed Democrats favorably with only 37% holding an unfavorable opinion of the party. The Republicans faired far worse, receiving a favorable opinion from only 40% of Americans while being viewed negatively by half.

These numbers, should they stay consistent, could set up another bad election cycle for Republicans in 2008.

Bloodlust

That's why people support torture... and the death penalty. The ineffectiveness and inherent injustice of these 'tools' are well documented, and immaterial.

A telling and sad story from the McCain Campaign trail:

At a celebration Saturday of the 232nd birthday of the Marine Corps, in Bedford, N.H., as veterans from five wars over the last century looked on, Mr. McCain said that any candidate who joked about sleep deprivation, as Mr. Giuliani had done several days earlier, should talk to his fellow prisoner of war and supporter, Orson G. Swindle.

Mr. McCain described how Mr. Swindle was “chained to a stool for 10 days, then let off that stool for one day, and then chained to that stool again for 10 more days.”

...
But Milt Mattson, standing outside the cafe after Mr. McCain left, said he thought the United States needed to take any measure it deemed necessary. “This is a war for our life,” Mr. Mattson said. “These are people that chop heads off. I don’t care what we have to do to stop them.”

Overconfidence watch

CBS News poll from Dec. 17, 2003,

polling nationally:

Dean 23%
Clark 10%
Lieberman 10%
Gephardt 6%
Sharpton 5%
Kerry 4%
Edwards 2%
Moseley-Braun 1%

Department of 'Hitchens Is Right'

Do the last two lines sound familiar?

Gays should be hanged, says Iranian minister

Homosexuals deserve to be executed or tortured and possibly both, an Iranian leader told British MPs during a private meeting at a peace conference, The Times has learnt.

... Minutes taken by an official describe a meeting between British and Iranian MPs at the Inter-Parliamentary Union, a peace body, in May. When the Britons raised the hangings of Asqari and Marhouni, the leader of the Iranian delegation, Mr Yahyavi, a member of his parliament’s energy committee, was unflinching. He “explained that according to Islam gays and lesbianism were not permitted”, the record states. “He said that if homosexual activity is in private there is no problem, but those in overt activity should be executed [he initially said tortured but changed it to executed]. He argued that homosexuality is against human nature and that humans are here to reproduce. Homosexuals do not reproduce.”

More Progressive Power Surge

On Monday Chicago's progressive talk radio station, WCPT, moves from 850 AM to 820 AM.

The signal is the most powerful in the area.

Our new signal at 820-AM will literally double our coverage area. Instead of broadcasting at 2,500 watts from Crystal Lake Illinois, our new transmitter moves 40 miles right to the heart of Chicago, giving us twice the power for all the people! In fact, WCPT’s new 5,000 watt daytime signal will be the best signal of any major AM station in Chicago. Yes, we did say daytime because the 820-AM signal is also licensed by the FCC to sign-on at sunrise and sign-off at sunset. Although we would
love to broadcast all day and all night, the new WCPT at 820-AM will now be
heard from as far north as Milwaukee to as far south as Kankakee. It will
finally put us on a level playing field with the rest of Chicago’s talk radio
stations; just in time for the 2008 election season.

It's time for all of you locals to start following Stephanie Miller!

Where Have We Been

GT12 Central has just completed a major electrical upgrade. For several days our resources have been limited and devoted to simply fending of the newly arrived late fall chill.

But now we're back with 50 more amps to spare.

Doh!

Following Cheney's lead from the very git go:

"There are a lot of Americans (who say), 'Why didn't you go get him?'" [current President G W] Bush told the Express-News back in 1997, according to Christenson. "Well, I'm confident that losing men and women as a result of sniper fire inside of Baghdad would have turned the tide of public opinion very quickly," Bush added.

I'll Take It

Show Me The Money

I would, as president, make absolutely certain that all federal laws pertaining to married couples [pertain to] same-sex couples who have civil unions as well.

- Barack Obama to Tim Russert on Meet The Press yesterday.

Tis the Season

Halloween is over.

From Think Progress

O’Reilly’s Contrived ‘War On Christmas’ Is Back

On his Fox News show last night, Bill O’Reilly kicked off his annual conniption fit over a perceived “War on Christmas.” O’Reilly’s target last night was a decision by the Fort Collins, Colorado City Council to celebrate the holiday season with “an educational museum display, plain wreaths and garlands on city property, and trees with white lights” rather than traditional Christmas decorations such as trees with “colored lights.”

In the segment, O’Reilly called the decision by the city’s Holiday Display Task Force — which he incorrectly called the holiday diversity task force — “insane” and “an assault to diminish Christmas for secular progressive reasons.”

His right-wing guest, Denver talk radio host Dan Caplis, went even further, calling it “something out of the old Soviet Union”:

DAN CAPLIS: Yes. Well, Bill, this is horrible. I mean, this should be a wake-up call to every member of your audience. If this kind of attack on American values can happen in Fort Collins, it can happen everywhere.
You have this arrogant minority that wants to go to the point of stripping away Christmas trees and colored lights. I mean, this sounds like something out of the old Soviet Union. And people need to be very aware.

This group on the left is mobilized. They’re sophisticated. They’re determined. And if you don’t stand up and fight for your culture, they will take it away from you.

The goal of Fort Collins’ proposals is to make sure that government-funded displays are as inclusive as possible. Employees at their desks and private citizens in general can “erect whatever display or symbols they so choose.”

As the Coloradoan’s Robert Moore notes today, O’Reilly “got some basic facts…wrong” about the committee he was complaining about, like “its name and number of members.”

More importantly, O’Reilly is behind in his outrage. Last year, he launched his “First Salvo in 2006 War Over Christmas” nearly two weeks earlier on October 27, complaining to former Sen. John Danforth (R-MO) about “lawsuits all over the country by the ACLU, objecting to Christmas carols, Christmas displays.” [Fox News 10/27/06]

If 2007 is anything like previous years, “secular progressives” have plenty of vitriol from O’Reilly to look forward to:

- Describing the “War on Christmas,” O’Reilly claimed “Every company in America should be on its knees thanking Jesus for being born. Without Christmas, most American businesses would be far less profitable.” [11/29/05]

- O’Reilly compared Catholic leaders’ silence over “war” on Christmas to Church’s reaction to pedophilia scandal. [12/14/05]

- “[Y]ou’re a moron … [i]f you don’t believe” the “secular progressive movement” is behind “war” on Christmas, claimed O’Reilly on his radio show. [12/19/05]

- O’Reilly lauded Wal-Mart’s decision to use the phrase “Merry Christmas” as a victory in the “culture war battle” for those who “want to retain the Christmas tradition.”[11/13/06]

Watch out “secular progressives,” the “war on Christmas” is back and O’Reilly’s got his eye on you.

People Like Us

I'm guessing that if you are reading this you would not classify yourself as 'conservative'.

That also means you probably are knowledgeable about things outside of you neighborhood and the WWF.

Liberals and Conservatives Like Different Entertainment

Not surprisingly, a new Norman Lear Center/Zogby poll reveals that America's entertainment tastes are as polarized as our political views.

A few of the findings:

Liberals were much more likely than conservatives to listen to commentary and entertainment with which they disagreed philosophically.

Fox News wins the prize for the most politically divisive TV channel (70% of conservatives watch it daily and only 3% of liberals).

Over 82% of conservatives say they never watch MTV.

Cerebral material like documentaries and arts and educational programming all appeal more to liberals... Conservative viewers are more likely to watch action-adventure, sports, and business programming.

Conservatives are the least likely group to listen to jazz and reggae... Liberals, on the other hand, are more likely than other respondents to enjoy almost every music genre.

Must Hear Audio

An Interview with Andrew Sullivan, James Traub of the NY Times and Laura Washington of the Chicago Sun-Times.

Obama and America

We look at America's relationship with candidate Barack Obama.
Whether or not he wins, do Republicans and Democrats need Obama in the
presidential race?

Listen here