RC's Step From HRC To BO

WSJ Online

Clinton Losing Grip On Catholic Voters
By DOUGLAS BELKIN

May 8, 2008;
In a primary season where demographics have often been destiny, one of the biggest stories out of Tuesday's voting in North Carolina and Indiana is that Sen. Hillary Clinton's solid grip on Catholic voters appeared to slip.

In Pennsylvania, Sen. Clinton beat Sen. Barack Obama by 40 points among Catholics. In Indiana, Sen. Obama sliced that deficit in half, earning 41% of the Catholic vote to Sen. Clinton's 59%. And in North Carolina Sen. Clinton won among Catholics by a scant seven points.

"We were pleasantly surprised, by the results," said Joshua Dubois, Sen. Obama's National Director of Religions Affairs. "We had a robust outreach and this is really a getting-to-know-you process."

The Obama campaign has focused more attention on Catholics recently. Catholics in Indiana and North Carolina tend to be wealthier and better-educated than those in Pennsylvania, Texas and Ohio. Sen. Obama has done well among the higher-income groups, while Sen. Clinton draws many working-class voters.

Several members of the Kennedy family stumped for Sen. Obama, and the campaign has held about 200 Catholic town-hall meetings since starting in Ohio.

While religion has taken a higher profile in the primary since the negative media attention surrounding Sen. Obama's minister, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr., it may have drummed up empathy among Catholics for Sen. Obama, said Bill Roth, spokesman for the Catholic Democrats, a nonprofit based in Boston.

"It made us a little bit nervous," said Mr. Roth. "Our fear was there would be a backlash against people of faith who participate in the public sphere."

In a recent survey of 19 states that have held a presidential primary this year, 63% of Catholics identified themselves as Democrats, compared with 37% for Republicans, a sharp increase from 2005 when 42% of Catholics identified themselves as Democrats. One of every four voters in the U.S. is Catholic.

One reason Sen. Clinton tends to do well among Catholics is the "nun theory," which holds that they are accustomed to strong women in leadership roles, said Mr. Roth. There is also an overlap between Catholics and two of her strongest constituencies: white working-class voters and Hispanics.

A person in the Clinton campaign said the Catholics in Pennsylvania tend to be more working class than those in North Carolina and Indiana, explaining some of the difference in the results.

In northwestern Indiana, poor turnout among largely Catholic, working-class Hispanic voters, who have supported Sen. Clinton, hurt her campaign, said Marie Eisenstein, an Assistant Professor of Political Science at Indiana University Northwest in Gary.

Meanwhile, strong turnout in the more-educated, Catholic-dominated precincts around South Bend, where the University of Notre Dame is located, may have helped Sen. Obama.

In Indiana, Catholics accounted for about 20% of the vote, in North Carolina it was about 10%, said Mr. Dubois.

And while it is tough to measure the effect, some of Sen. Obama's supporters said they believe the pope's visit helped his campaign.