Tuesday, May 06, 2008

Don't Watch TV Until 8:15

Central Daylight Time that is. By then the races will probably be called.

Taegan Godard cautions:


Beware of the Exit Polls
By Taegan Goddard

In the next couple hours, we'll probably see leaked exit polls from Indiana and North Carolina. It would be wise not to pay much attention to them.It's hard enough to poll primary races due to selection bias. However, several factors unique to today's election could throw off turnout models and make these survey's very unreliable:
Overall turnout today is set to break historic records.

The excitement of the race could change the number of late day voters who are never captured in exit polls.

With open primaries in each state, large numbers of Republicans and/or independents are voting in the Democratic primaries.

Voters participating in Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos" may not tell pollsters the truth.

Historical patterns don't mean much since it's been a very long time since presidential primaries in either state mattered very much.If you really want to see some data, you're better off looking at Charles Franklin's final analysis of the primary polling.

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